Republicans Left in Blue Districts

The 2006 election left a lot of unfinished business: a number of Republicans in Dem-friendly districts who survived strong challenges and got a two-year grace period. The 2008 saw another swath cut through these folks, but there are still some left to be picked off, so this list should give us an idea of where to train our fire in 2010 (and also where to expect retirements). Here are the top 10 most Democratic-leaning districts, rated by current PVI (note that PVIs will change soon, once clearer presidential numbers by district are released) represented by Republicans, before and after this week.

110th Congress Rep. PVI 111th Congress Rep. PVI
DE-AL Castle D+6.5 DE-AL Castle D+6.5
CT-04 Shays D+5.4 NJ-02 LoBiondo D+4.0
NJ-02 LoBiondo D+4.0 IL-10 Kirk D+3.6
IL-10 Kirk D+3.6 WA-08 Reichert (?) D+2.3
NY-25 Walsh D+3.4 PA-06 Gerlach D+2.2
NJ-03 Saxton D+3.3 NY-03 King D+2.1
NM-01 Wilson D+2.4 PA-15 Dent D+1.6
WA-08 Reichert D+2.3 FL-10 Young D+1.1
PA-06 Gerlach D+2.2 IA-04 Latham D+0.4
NY-03 King D+2.1 NY-23 McHugh R+0.2

Note that we’re down to only 9 GOPers left in districts with Dem-leaning PVIs (with the departures of Porter, Fosella, and Knollenberg as well).

Now let’s look at the flipside: Democrats in the darkest red districts. Not as much turnover here, but obviously it suggests Walt Minnick will be our greatest vulnerability for 2010 when he runs against a non-brain-damaged opponent.

110th Congress Rep. PVI 111th Congress Rep. PVI
TX-17 Edwards R+17.7 ID-01 Minnick R+18.9
UT-02 Matheson R+16.9 TX-17 Edwards R+17.7
MS-04 Taylor R+16.3 UT-02 Matheson R+16.9
TX-22 Lampson R+15.7 MS-04 Taylor R+16.3
ND-AL Pomeroy R+13.1 AL-02 Bright R+13.2
MO-04 Skelton R+10.8 ND-AL Pomeroy R+13.1
MS-01 Childers R+10.0 CA-04 Brown (?) R+10.9
SD-AL Herseth R+10.0 MO-04 Skelton R+10.8
IN-08 Ellsworth R+8.5 MS-01 Childers R+10.0
GA-08 Marshall R+8.4 SD-AL Herseth R+10.0

Nancy Boyda was #13 on the old list, and Don Cazayoux was #19. Kratovil and Markey will slot in on the new list at #11 and #13. Also, note that we now hold the 14th (ID-01) and 19th (TX-17) most Republican-leaning districts in the nation. The flipside of that, if you can imagine, would be if the Republicans held IL-02 (Jesse Jackson Jr. at D+34.9) and MA-08 (Capuano at D+33.0).

74 thoughts on “Republicans Left in Blue Districts”

  3. Castle (retirement or a Senate race), Herseth (Governor or Senate), Kirk (Senate), Skelton (retirement), Taylor (retirement), King (Governor), Young (retirement), McHugh (retirement).

  4. What a great pick-up. Minnick does remind me of Matheson in a few ways and I’m hoping he can stay tough in that district for the next cycle or two. While it was a bummer to lose Boyda, I feel vindicated with knocking off ‘ol Brain Fade.

    Start fundraising now, Walt. Your gonna need it.

  7. That’s gonna be tough as hell to hold, there’s going to be a crowded primary to face him in 2010, but hopefully he manages to dig in the way Gene Taylor and Jim Matheson did.

  11. PA-04(Altmire):  McCain 56% Obama 43%.  One of the few districts where McCain improved over Bush.

    FL-15(Posey, R):  McCain 51%, Obama 48%.  Down from a 57%-43% Bush win.  

    CO-03(Salazar, D):  McCain 51%, Obama 48%

    CO-04(Markey, D):  McCain 50%, Obama 49%.  This is very good news for Markey’s ability to hold on in the future.  

    NJ-02(LoBiondo, R):  Obama 54%, McCain 45%.  Another Republican in an Obama district.

    NV-02(Heller, R):  McCain 49%, Obama 49%.  McCain wins this by just under 1,000 votes.  

    AZ-01(Kirkpatrick, D):  McCain 54%, Obama 44%.  If McCain had not been on the ballot, Obama would have likely won here.  

    MI-07(Schurer, D):  Obama 52%, McCain 47%.  Schurer should be fine here in this majority Obama district.  

  12. What’s amazing is that Democrats didn’t even bother to compete full scale in some of these districts (DE, NY-3, FL-10, NJ-2).  I think the “plan” is to have Bill Young and Mike Castle die in office because neither seems inclined to retire.  Currently only 9 of 210 districts (4.3%) with a Democratic PVI are represented by a Republican and if Darcy Burner wins, the figure is eight (3.8%).  By comparison about 20% of districts with a Republican PVI will be represented by Democrats (probably somewhere around 46 or 47 when the dust settles).

    PA-6 was the focus of a major campaign in 2006 and we lost.  Roggio spent under $400 K IIRC and still managed 48%.  We lefrt that one on the table.

  15. Glad to see my congressman, John McHugh, crack the top ten of potential targets. This seems a fine example of the kind of district the Democrats don’t bother with but should. For the first time, McHugh’s opponent this year actually had a visible presence in the district (though he still lost by 30 points or more). I suspect that McHugh’s personal popularity and occasional gestures to being a moderate (working with Senator Clinton on various issues) helps him. But I think the area is trending Democratic and it looks like he’ll be one of the last two Republicans in NY state.

    I suspect he’ll retire once Dems redistrict NY after 2010 (assuming they hold the state senate they just won and the governor’s office). But it would help to lay the groundwork for a credible challenge to him now. And even if such efforts fail, they put pressure on the “moderate” representatives to go against their party more, to lessen the heat.

    Here’s hoping the DCCC will start recruiting for at least a respectable challenge in districts like this in 2010.

  16. I found this amusing since I went to the dog track to gamble just last night.  Dog racing is pretty big in my area.  My city just built a brand new state of the art greyhound track.

    http://www.boston.com/news/pol…

    Summary: Would prohibit dog racing in Massachusetts where there is any form of betting on the speed or ability of the dogs.

    The amendment passed in MA 56-44%.

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